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How India lost its way

The second wave of COVID-19 is striking many parts of the world, but it has shown devastating repercussions in India. The health care infrastructure of India is collapsing by degrees with the surge in the number of COVID-19 cases this year. India is experiencing one of its worst health crises. Hospitals are overwhelmed with patients, and many of them are struggling with beds and oxygen. The rate of infections and transmissions is furiously springing. People are searching for hospital beds and oxygen through social media pleas. Most of the patients are dying because of the void of proper medication facilities. There was an economic crisis last year and an extensive health crisis this year, which seems unstoppable. A nationwide lockdown pertained in the previous year when the cases were few. However, laborers headed in accumulation towards their villages on foot; failing to earn their livelihoods, many lost their lives on the way. Their helplessness led to starvation. Last year, there was a steady rise in COVID-19 cases. The national lockdown has resulted in economic retardation with the lowest GDP rate ever. The health infrastructure worked well last year since COVID-cases were rising at a certain speed. Thus, the economy and livelihoods of the poor sections deteriorated in 2020. In the nick of time, people started to neglect safety norms like wearing masks, maintaining social distance, and avoiding large crowd gatherings. With the commencement of the year 2021, colleges and educational institutions started to re-open. They have not imagined that a new wave of COVID-19 would come in one stroke. The raging increase in the number of infections and fatalities has not only swamped the health infrastructure but has led to an economic downturn. It has now become exigent to save lives and rehabilitate livelihoods. India has seen the sharpest surge of COVID-19 cases with a 46% increase and infections with a 70% increase (April 5-11). May 2021 is already declared the deadliest month, with more than 71 lakh cases in just 21 days. Additionally, this month reported more than 83 thousand fatalities. The count of daily cases is accelerating venomously such that they were the initial record of the past ten months. The lack of health system preparedness is due to underfunding. India spends only 1.5% of its GDP in the health sector, which is way lower than other big countries. In April, India overtook Brazil and became the second worst-hit country in the world. The red lights approached by late March, and the people acted like nothing serious was going on. Additionally, various political parties held mass rallies in West Bengal for elections. Also, a religious event congregated millions of devotees towards Varanasi. The ray of hope for Indians now is the vaccine. However, vaccines were exported in other countries from India when only 0.2% of its population got vaccinated per day.

Global assistance to India

The shortage of medical equipment in India necessitated foreign assistance. Global communities are taking numerous initiatives to support India. But, India has a policy of not accepting grants. Therefore, service is provided either through international N.G.O.s or commercial supplies. Various multinational companies, international organizations, and over 15 countries, including Russia, U.S.A., France, Australia, Germany, Ireland, Singapore, U.A.E., etc., came forward to support India. They sent non-invasive ventilators, oxygen cylinders, oxygen concentrators, 480BiPAP machines, and oxygen plants to assist India's health infrastructure. The United States had committed to deliver $100 million of supplies, including medical equipment and materials required for vaccine production. Other initiatives like Singapore formed a New Relief fund for assistance to India. European Union announced €2.2 million contributions to WHO for patient care and additional testing. Altogether, service of over €100 million to be provided to India from European nations. Due to the Indian policy regime, European Union's funding and humanitarian assistance to India chiefly direct through the Indian Red cross society. India often had border disputes with China and Pakistan. But during the crisis, China has accelerated the production of 40,000 oxygen generators ordered by India. And Chinese spokesperson Wang Webin assured India for the delivery of further assistance. At the same time, the Pakistani Edhi foundation (N.G.O.) assured India to provide medical equipment. Leading global companies like Walmart, Boeing, and Mastercard provided more than $20 million in assistance through N.G.O.s like American India Foundation. C.E.O.s from around the world like Sundar Pichai donated around Rs.135 crores to UNICEF to help India, and Indian origin Satya Nadella promised to assist whenever required. The group of 40 C.E.O.s of the U.S.A. created a global task force for aiding the needs of India. The World Health Organization (WHO) received funds from different corners of the globe and sent 2600 individuals as an expert management team to support India. Australian cricketer Brett Lee, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, and former chief technology officer of Coinbase Balaji Srinivasan supported India by donating cryptocurrencies. Although India is the largest generic medicine manufacturer, it could not manufacture generic versions of the COVID-19 vaccine because of intellectual property rights. Thus, it led to a vaccination crisis all over the world, including India. Therefore, the World Health Organization, South Africa, and India demand consent on waving temporary vaccine patents from the U.S.A. Many influential people like Pope Francis criticized intellectual property for putting it above the health of humanity, and even E.U. is ready to take a positive stand on this. Though the decision is yet to be confirmed, and apart from lifting patents, upskilling the vaccine workforce and technology transfer are also necessary. Henceforth, India would be getting help ultimately.

Aid for India may not be enough to curb the surge

India is now second in the world, just behind the USA in the total number of deaths. The official numbers reported are way less than the actual numbers on the ground. One major piece of the problem is the shortage of oxygen manufacturing factories in India. Many states of the country still do not have a properly built medical oxygen plant. The scarcity of oxygen plants is hampering patients' health now. The supply chain management was shackled. When closely surveyed the reasons for this mismanagement, an important reason is the lack of health system preparedness. If the Indian health system is even close to prepared, the death toll and the daily number of cases wouldn't be this high. And people would not have died due to the lack of hospital beds or oxygen. India sent a bulk of vaccines to foreign countries to help them in the name of its foreign policy. Vaccine Diplomacy eventually led to the shortage of vaccines in India. As of May 2021, only 3 to 4 percent of the total population of India have reportedly received their two doses of vaccines which is relatively low to other nations. Another crucial issue is the pacing of the vaccines, especially in rural India. As of May 27, India expects to give about 11 lakh doses within three days, says a report of the Times of India. With this speed, India could take two to three years to vaccinate about 80 percent of its population. The numbers are low in its microcosm because initially, about 19 million people got vaccines per day. Instead of doubling the speed of vaccination, perhaps it is lessening. For every problem, there is a solution. There are a few solutions for this as well. The first and foremost thing that owes the necessity of this situation is to increase the vaccination drive across the country. The government should talk with various pharmaceutical companies of India and other countries to make the vaccines available in large numbers. Another long-term solution would be to invest heavily in India's healthcare infrastructure. Additionally, oxygen manufacturing plants to be built to deal with the possibility of the upcoming variants.

Economic impact of Covid-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has disruptively impacted Indian frugality, and hence, versatilities have occurred in the financial market. During 2020-21, the economic activities faced the worst contractions due to the imposed nationwide lockdown. The recession and COVID-19 crisis are giving jitters to markets every day. It has adversely impacted the economic growth of the country. Thereby, India's GDP rate went down to 3.1% in the fourth quarter of FY2020. Poverty and unemployment have increased with the decrease in jobs and income ratio. There are some data of the unfortunate global recession presented by some analysts and agencies concerning the fall of economic activities in India. The World Bank had initially forecasted India's economic growth for the fiscal year 2021 with the lowest figures since 1990. The Ministry of Statics report estimates a contraction of 24% in the GDP of FY 2021 (Q1). Thus, the budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reported estimates of 10.5% GDP growth. However, the impact on industrial activity during the second wave is less in comparison to the havoc witnessed in 2020. The ongoing second wave will result in a "short-term negative economic shock". As Q1 growth is likely to be -10 to -15% worth a loss of Rs.70,000 crores. SBI reports state that India could reach its second peak by mid-May which risks the economy resulting in income inequality, unemployment, and sectoral diversity. According to Nomura India Business Resumption Index, India's economic activity decreased from 82.9% to 44.5%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI stated about the growth outlook of the Indian economy that the real GDP growth for 2021-22 is retained at 10.5% consisting of 26.2 % in the first quarter, 8.3% in the second quarter, 5.4% in the third quarter and 6.2% in the fourth quarter. Mentioned below are some examples of different industries to understand the major ups and downs in the economic sector due to the pandemic:- Business Sector: At the beginning of the pandemic, the Business sector tasted a big financial breakdown. An estimated data says that unemployment rose from 6.7% to 26% during the pandemic. During the lockdown, approx 14 crore people lost their jobs while other faced salaries cut off. More than 45% of households across the nation have reported an income drop. Thereby, the Indian economy was expected to lose over Rs.32,000 crore every day during the first phase of complete lockdown followed by the COVID-19 outbreak. Aviation and tourism: These two respective sectors are among those industries that were troubled by the pandemic first. The contributions of the aviation and tourism sector to the country's GDP stood at about 2.4% and 9.2% respectively. Due to the travel restrictions, both industries may have sustained losses of about Rs.85 billion, as estimated by IATO. And these industries also dealt with the cash flow issue during the outbreak of COVID-19. Agricultural system: The COVID-19 has marked an unfavorable impact on the Indian agricultural system viz., production, marketing, and consumption. Thereby, the pandemic affected the production and marketing sector with early evidence of the estimated growth at 5.9%, which saw a decline by 2.5%. Telecommunications: It is one of the significant sectors that contributed in maintaining the GDP growth during the pandemic with the implication of the new term "Work From Home". Additionally, broadband or data connectivity has been prioritized by the users. So, the demand has also been increased by 10%. Thus, the telecom sector employs 4 million people nearby and contributes about 6.5% of GDP. Pharmaceutical industry: India is the largest producer of generic drugs globally. The pharmaceutical industry has risen during the pandemic with market size of $55 billion at the beginning of 2020. The increasing demand for critical drugs, medical equipment, PPE kits helped to contribute to the financial market. Oil And Gas industry: No doubt, the demand for transportation and fuels slowed down during the pandemic. It is the third-largest energy consumer sector that contributes about 5.2% of the global oil demand. Thus the government increased the excise duty to cover up the revenue loss. S&P Global Ratings estimated a decline in the GDP for 2021-22 from 11% to 9.8%. If such projections turn out to be true then, it can mute the V-shaped recovery. However, the Economic survey of 2020-21 forecasted a "V-shaped" economic recovery for the real GDP growth to bounce back sharply in FY22. Thus, the country's policy may help India to reduce the adverse impact of COVID-19. CEA Subramanian from Economic Survey said that India's economy has witnessed a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery and praised India’s policy response for their bounce-back recovery. The repercussions of lockdown on the economic structure will persist even after the restrictions are removed. The effect of this pandemic surely affected the people, their domestic demands, and economic activities. Research by Motilal Oswal also suggests that a single day of lockdown could take off 14 to 19 basis points from the annual economic growth. The current scenario reflects 1.2 percentage points which means a full-year growth of 9.8% for FY2022.

The role of safety nets

The COVID-19 emergency has exhibited the fragility of the system and now it shows how there is a dire need to construct a solid safety net for the disadvantaged groups. Citing the 2018 Multidimensional Poverty Index, which confirmed that in addition to the 1.3 billion classified as poor, 879 million are susceptible to falling into poverty. It may manifest quickly if they suffer setbacks from conflict, sickness, hunger, unemployment, and more. This warfare is acute for informal sector workers—which includes self-employed, subcontracted laborers, small farmers, and landless workers. India’s informal sector employs 303 million people. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, more than 80% of the labor force is informal, and even in industrialized states such as Maharashtra and Delhi, this figure accounts for 70%. COVID-19 is one such mishap that has pushed millions of people decades back in development. There is a need for steady employment, food, and housing so that millions of vulnerable workers now no longer fall into destitution and despair. An array of safety nets exists to help the poor, which includes the world’s biggest food-based total social program, the Public Distribution System, overlaying 800 million people. To reply swiftly, India is making use of those present schemes and reshaping them to deal with the specific demanding situations from COVID-19. There are numerous solutions and safety nets measures that might facilitate curbing the situation. Firstly, the protection of employees needs to be primary. Statistics on a way to shield oneself need to be provided, along with safety necessities, including hand sanitizers also to be provided. Further, medical insurance which incorporates paid sick leave needs to be extended to all employees. This suggests that the authorities and employers need to pay for the remedy of employees and also make sure no loss of earnings for sick leaves. Secondly, unemployment advantages need to be paid to aid employees whose earnings are misplaced or dwindled because of the outbreak. This is important for ensuring that employees do not bear the financial shock. Some unemployment insurances exist in India, including in Punjab, however aren't prolonged to entrepreneurs and tech-employees. This might be in the form of its health and monetary crises. The authorities should create access to the public distribution system. This device has already proven powerful in Tamil Nadu and can be replicated in the rest of the country. The government of India and the technology companies that function right here should begin considering the workers who hold this country together. Ideally, the experts or megalomaniacs should have addressed the people about anticipated health emergencies and have planned ways to build a capable health infrastructure. Solutions like UBI transfers can help briefly plug the holes of an otherwise broken social security system. However, it might not be a long-time answer. The country has tried to control the crisis, but this is only the beginning. The world is bracing for a much larger disaster, as should we – developing sturdy social protection nets for marginalized and vulnerable people is one manner to put together for the vagaries and unpredictability of the approaching months. To finish up, the need of the hour is to feature plans to bolster our healthcare system, boost the assets and convert all pains and sufferings as the potential energy to fix this nation.

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